Are Alliances Better Than Treaties for Keeping Peace?

The question of whether alliances or treaties help keep peace better is a big topic in international relations. Both are important for solving conflicts and keeping things stable, but they work in different ways and have different goals.

What Are Alliances and Treaties?

• Alliances: These are agreements between countries where they promise to support each other during conflicts. Examples include NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and the Warsaw Pact.

• Treaties: These are legal agreements that commit countries to do certain things. They usually focus on resolving specific problems or setting rules. Famous examples are the Treaty of Versailles (1919) and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1968).

What Do the Numbers Say?

1. Alliances and Wars:

   • A study by Eric Gartzke in 2011 found that countries in alliances are less likely to go to war with each other. In fact, from 1816 to 2001, countries in alliances had a 25% lower chance of fighting compared to countries without alliances.

2. Treaty Success:

   • The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reported that treaties aimed at solving conflicts led to a 60% decrease in repeated conflicts, especially in civil wars.

3. Lasting Peace:

   • Research published in the Journal of Peace Research in 2019 showed that wars ending with treaties are 50% more likely to start again in just five years compared to wars ending with alliances.

Pros and Cons

• Alliances:

  • Deterrence: Alliances help prevent attacks. For instance, NATO states that if one member is attacked, it’s like attacking all members.
  • Shared Goals: Alliances often come together because they have common interests. This can lead to better teamwork and handling conflicts, like we see with EU countries.

• Treaties:

  • Legal Power: Treaties create legal rules that countries must follow, and if they don’t, they can be taken to international courts.
  • Focus on Specific Problems: Treaties can deal with certain issues, like arms control or trade rules, that alliances might overlook.

Problems and Limitations

• Temporary Nature of Treaties: Many treaties can change with new political leaders. For example, when the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Agreement in 2017, it showed how new leadership can end treaties quickly.

• Issues in Alliances: Alliances can also face challenges, like the breakup of the Warsaw Pact. Today, NATO is tested by differences between members and their own national interests.

Conclusion

In the end, whether alliances or treaties work better for keeping peace often depends on the specific situation and what is happening in the world. Alliances can offer quick security and prevent attacks, while treaties provide rules that can help create long-term stability. Using both strategies might be the best way to handle complex international issues.