When you start learning advanced Japanese, it’s important to talk about chances and possibilities. Knowing how to share your thoughts about what might happen can make your conversations richer and help you improve your language skills. Let’s look at five common phrases in advanced Japanese that show probability and supposition.

First, let’s understand the basics. Japanese has special ways to express how likely or unlikely something is. You might use casual phrases like かもしれない (kamoshirenai) in daily chats, but more advanced conversations need us to know some deeper phrases and grammar. That’s what we’ll focus on.

1. でしょう (deshō)
The phrase でしょう is used when you think something is likely to happen. It’s like saying "probably" or "I suppose" in English. You mainly use it in positive sentences to make a good guess about a situation.

Example:

• 明日は雨が降るでしょう。
  (Ashita wa ame ga furu deshō.)
  "It will probably rain tomorrow."

Here, you’re showing that it might rain based on what you know, like a weather report or dark clouds. It’s a way to be confident while also admitting you’re not totally sure.

2. かもしれません (kamoshiremasen)
On the other hand, かもしれません is used to show that something might be true, but you’re not sure. It’s similar to saying "might" or "may" in English. This phrase works well in more formal chats and suggests a softer chance than でしょう.

Example:

• 彼は遅れるかもしれません。
  (Kare wa okureru kamoshiremasen.)
  "He may be late."

In this sentence, you’re saying there’s a chance he will be late, but it’s not definite. This adds a layer of thought to your conversation, showing you’re considering different possibilities.

3. (だろう/でしょう)と考えられる (to kangaeraru)
Here’s another helpful phrase for talking about chances: だろう (darou) or でしょう (deshō) combined with と考えられる (to kangaeraru), which means "can be considered." This phrase helps you say that you believe something is likely based on evidence or reasons.

Example:

• 彼女は海外に行くでしょうと考えられます。
  (Kanojo wa kaigai ni iku deshō to kangaeraremasu.)
  "It can be considered that she will likely go abroad."

In this case, you’re thinking carefully about the situation and making a guess based on clear reasons. It shows that you’ve put thought into what could happen.

4. おそらく (osoraku)
おそらく is similar to saying "likely" or "probably" in English, but it sounds more formal. This is a great way to sound sophisticated when you talk about chances. It works well in both speaking and writing and shows a good amount of certainty.

Example:

• おそらく明日は晴れるでしょう。
  (Osoraku ashita wa hareru deshō.)
  "It is likely that it will be sunny tomorrow."

Using おそらく makes your statement stronger and demonstrates confidence in what you think while still being about chances.

5. となると (to naru to)
Lastly, となると means "if that is the case." You use this phrase to talk about what might happen if a certain condition is true. It shows a possibility and helps you think about the consequences of that chance.

Example:

• 明日雨が降るとなると、試合は中止ですね。
  (Ashita ame ga furu to naru to, shiai wa chūshi desu ne.)
  "If it rains tomorrow, then the game will be canceled."

This phrase lets you discuss possibilities while also drawing conclusions based on them. It’s a great way to think deeply in Japanese.

Now, let’s practice these phrases to help you feel more comfortable using them. Here are some exercises you can try:

Practice Exercises:

1. Make sentences with でしょう to predict the weather for next week.
2. Use かもしれません to talk about your friends’ travel plans, saying what might happen.
3. Pick a topic you like (like sports or movies) and use だろう or でしょうと考えられる to guess about what could happen next.
4. Write a short paragraph about a current event, using おそらく to say what will probably happen afterward.
5. Imagine a conversation with yourself using となると to think about what might happen if you quit your job.

By using these expressions in your practice, you’ll get better at speaking and writing in advanced Japanese. Remember, learning a language takes practice and patience. As you get used to these phrases, you’ll find it easier to have deeper conversations with native speakers. Keep trying new things!