The way we talk about chances or probabilities in Japanese can change depending on what’s happening and how we feel.

Context Matters

1. Situation:

   • When people are in a formal setting, using the word でしょう (deshō) shows they are pretty sure about something.
   • In more relaxed conversations, saying かもしれない (kamoshirenai) shows that they might not be too sure.

2. Relationship:

   • If people know each other well, they might use a casual phrase like かもね (kamo ne), which feels friendlier.

Tone is Important

• Voice Level:

  • If someone's voice goes up at the end of a sentence, it might mean they are unsure.
  • If their voice stays flat, it can mean they feel more sure about what they’re saying.

• Body Language:

  • How we move or use our hands can also show how certain we feel about something.

Here are a couple of examples:

• "明日雨が降るでしょう" (Ashita ame ga furu deshō) means, "It will probably rain tomorrow," showing more confidence about the prediction.
• "明日雨が降るかもしれない" (Ashita ame ga furu kamoshirenai) means, "It might rain tomorrow," showing less certainty.

So, knowing how context and tone work is super important for talking well in Japanese!